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2052. The new report to the Club of Rome. A global forecast for the next 40 years (original title: 2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years) is a description of trends in global development by Jørgen Randers. It was published in 2012 and follows on from the first report to the Club of Rome, The Limits of Growth of 1972.

He distinguishes himself from his predecessor’s report primarily by three characteristics:
First, it does not describe an imminent disaster scenario, but only shows trends.
Secondly, it is to be read against the background of the experience since 1972, namely that all mankind has responded to the previous reports, but with a delay of 20 to 40 years.
Thirdly, it not only offers future scenarios, but also makes concrete suggestions on how individuals should respond to emerging developments.

Background
Unlike “The Limits of Growth” (1972), Randers does not present alternative future scenarios that will occur depending on the path humanity chooses, but a single prognosis. This is possible because after 40 years of experience, the obstacles that stand in the way of sustainability can be assessed relatively well. His forecast, of course, does not predict any events, but only general trends. These trends will include that in large parts of the world, capitalism will no longer be geared towards maximizing profits, but towards ecological goals. Economic growth will also decline, not because of decisions, but because it will no longer be enforceable despite all efforts. He believes that the current emphasis on individual rights is unsustainable. They would have to step back behind the common good. But he fears that this will happen too late to prevent the global temperature increase of more than two degrees.

The redistribution struggle will lead to lower productivity growth. Nevertheless, growth will not be stopped in time enough so that disasters are foreseeable for future generations.

By 2052, the climate will not change catastrophically. The fact that the climatic change will intensify itself even without human influence will only be noticeable after 2052.

Global forecast

The logic underlying the forecast
Randers proceeds from two guiding questions: “How will consumption develop over the next 40 years?” and “Under what conditions – in what social and natural environment – will this future consumption take place?” (p. 78) He uses computer models in order not to overlook feedback effects. The forecast for 2052 goes back to many – partly contradictory – individual forecasts.

Population and consumption
According to Randers, the population wa